#234 – The Great Rotation: Why German Exports Are Moving Beyond China – with Rajiv Biswas (CEO, Asia-Pacific Economics)

In 2021, China was Germany's second largest export market. By 2025, it had dropped to sixth place. In 2025 alone, German exports to China fell by around 10%, driven largely by falling auto exports and growing competition from Chinese domestic brands.

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In this episode, Thomas Derksen and Damian Maib speak with Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics, about what he calls "the great rotation": China will remain Germany's largest export market in Asia, but the growth is moving towards India, Southeast Asia and South Korea.

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Rajiv explains why Asia-Pacific's share of world GDP has risen from around 25% in 2000 to about 37% today, while the EU's share has fallen from just over 21% to around 15%. He talks about why China's growth is likely to slow to around 4% per year until 2030, far below the rates the world was used to for decades, and why China will join the ranks of high-income countries as early as 2027, losing its advantage of low-cost manufacturing wages.

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We also discuss how ageing populations in China, Japan and South Korea are weighing on consumer demand, while younger economies like India and Indonesia are growing quickly. Rajiv shows how supply chains are shifting to countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and India, and why India, now the world's fourth largest economy, offers German companies big opportunities in areas like engineering, machinery, power equipment, medical equipment and autos, especially with the new EU-India free trade agreement on the horizon.

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Enjoy the episode!